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帮帮创意 > 金融投资 > 野村证券:全球电信行业研究报告2009年6月.pdf

野村证券:全球电信行业研究报告2009年6月.pdf

野村证券:全球电信行业研究报告2009年6月.pdf
内容要点:
野村证券:全球电信行业研究报告2009年6月, ANY AUTHORS NAMED ON THIS REPORT ARE RESEARCH ANALYSTS UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED. PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 38 gl Vendor revenue trends have heavily underperformed operator June 23, 2009 2 Nomura Equity Research Table of contents Capex as a guide to vendor revenues ...........................................................................3 Operator capex outlook .......June 23, 2009 Nomura Equity Research 3 Capex as a guide to vendor revenues Operator capex trends have historically given the best outlook for equipment vendor revenue trends, although relationship betJune 23, 2009 4 Nomura Equity Research In the mobile market, vendor revenue fell from 58% of operator capex in 2004 to just 29% in 2008. All our historical data is as reported by operators under NomurJune 23, 2009 Nomura Equity Research 5 Figure 4: Share of global wireless capex from emerging markets 30%32%39%43%52%59%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Emergingwirelesscapex /worldJune 23, 2009 6 Nomura Equity Research Figure 5: APAC capex forecasts Figure 6: Global net mobile subscriber additions (m) 30%32%39%43%52%59% 59%56%54%52%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2June 23, 2009 Nomura Equity Research 7 In effect, if mobile capex were to grow 2% this year, then equipment revenues would be up 3%. For 2010 and 2011, even if wireless capex falls as forecast, then eJune 23, 2009 8 Nomura Equity Research Operator capex outlook Our capex estimates are taken from our global telecom services team’s forecast

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